Fitch Solutions has significantly upgraded its forecast for Ghana’s current account surplus in 2026, citing a stronger-than-anticipated trade performance during the first half of the year.
The research and analysis arm of Fitch Ratings now expects Ghana’s current account surplus to reach 7.8% of GDP, up from its previous estimate of 5.2% of GDP.
The revision follows a substantial improvement in the country’s merchandise trade balance, with Ghana recording a US$4.3 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2026.
According to Fitch Solutions, the H1 figure was considerably higher than the average merchandise trade surplus of about US$700 million recorded during the first halves of the 2016–2025 period.
Fitch Solutions attributed the strong performance largely to higher export receipts from gold and crude oil, which boosted Ghana’s earnings from international trade and strengthened its external position.
The research firm said the size of the trade surplus exceeded its earlier expectations, prompting the upward revision to its full-year current account outlook.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions said.
Despite the positive outlook for 2026, Fitch Solutions expects Ghana’s current account surplus to moderate in 2027.
The firm nevertheless projects that the country will maintain a sizeable surplus, suggesting that Ghana’s external position could remain relatively strong beyond this year.
