Ghana’s crude oil production has declined for the sixth consecutive year, with output falling from a peak of 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.30 million barrels in 2025, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) has warned.
In a research report, the energy policy think tank described the sustained decline as a structural crisis driven by ageing oil fields, inadequate investment in exploration, and delays in signing new petroleum agreements.
According to the report, the Energy Commission projects crude oil production will decline further to 34.83 million barrels in 2026 if current trends persist.
“This is not a routine cyclical dip. It is a sixth consecutive year of decline,” the report stated.
IES attributed the declining output to a combination of natural reservoir depletion, operational challenges, and policy shortcomings.
It noted that Ghana’s crude oil production remains concentrated in three mature offshore fields: Jubilee, Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN), and Sankofa Gye Nyame (SGN), with no new major producing field coming on stream in more than eight years.
The report identified the absence of new petroleum agreements since 2018 as one of the most significant policy failures, warning that the lack of fresh exploration projects has left the country’s production dependent on fields whose output continues to decline.
“Without new exploration acreage moving toward production, national output is structurally locked into the decline curves of three mature fields, a gap PIAC has explicitly and repeatedly urged the government to close,” the report noted.
According to the report, Jubilee, Ghana’s largest producing field, recorded the sharpest year-on-year decline in 2025, with production falling by more than 30 per cent. Average daily production at the field also dropped from 90,755 barrels in 2024 to 60,898 barrels in 2025, partly due to a planned maintenance shutdown between March 26 and April 8.
IES said the prolonged decline should concern policymakers because it reflects systemic challenges rather than normal fluctuations in oil production.
The institute noted that national crude oil output has fallen by nearly half since 2019, resulting in declining petroleum revenues and significant opportunity costs for the economy.
To reverse the trend, IES called on the government to urgently resume the negotiation and signing of new petroleum agreements through a transparent and competitive licensing process.
It also urged the accelerated implementation of the government’s planned US$2 billion investment to drill 20 new wells in the Jubilee and TEN fields while strengthening the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), improving governance in the petroleum sector, and reforming the country’s gas and power markets.
According to IES, reversing Ghana’s declining crude oil output would require renewed exploration, accelerated investment, stronger institutions, and improved management of petroleum resources.
