Ghana’s position as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer is under threat as output declines and competitors expand production.
In June 2025, the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) signalled that the country would miss its production target for the 2024/2025 season. The forecast was cut from 650,000 tonnes to 617,500 tonnes, with output expected to remain below 600,000 tonnes.
COCOBOD Managing Director Randy Abbey said on June 10, 2025, that 590,000 tonnes had been collected with only three months left in the crop season.
“I don’t think that much will change, looking at the time we have to end the crop season,” he said.
In February 2026, Abbey disclosed that although more than 530,000 tonnes had been sold for the current season, about 50,000 tonnes remained unsold with farmers.
“The situation is where we have beans, but they are not buying; the beans are too expensive,” he said, blaming Ghana’s non-competitive farmgate price.
The projected harvest is well below Ghana’s historical average of around 800,000 tonnes and far from the more than one million tonnes recorded in the 2020/2021 season. COCOBOD has attributed the decline to aging farms, Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease, illegal mining (galamsey), smuggling and climate-related disruptions.
Meanwhile, Ecuador is projected to produce more than 650,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, with expectations of reaching 800,000 tonnes by the end of the decade. Indonesia, which produced 641,741 tonnes in 2023, is also expected to increase output in the coming years, supported by government programmes and private initiatives such as Cocoa Life. Nigeria, currently producing about 340,000 tonnes, aims to raise output to 500,000 tonnes.
Analysts say Ghana’s ability to retain its ranking will depend on reforms in the cocoa sector, improved productivity and competitive pricing as global competition intensifies.
